At year's end, a look at the year ahead
Dec.
28, 1997
By JIM
BROOKS
As 1997 draws to a close, it's only natural to take a look at the
past year and try to anticipate what's ahead in 1998.
The only constant in the computer and online industry is change.
And I figure that at some point in the next 12 months, one or more
of my predictions will come to pass -- at least for a few moments.
With that caveat, let's see what the my Intel-powered crystal ball
has in store for 1998:
-- Microsoft will emerge from the current Justice Department
anti-trust investigations with only minor bruises to release Windows
98. It'll come in two flavors: Win98 with Internet Explorer, and
Win98 without it.
But a Windows 98 system without the Web browser desktop will look
suspiciously identical to Windows 95, and Windows 98 will be seen
for what it is -- a Win95 upgrade, rather than a brand new operating
system.
More importantly, Microsoft will initiate a huge marketing campaign
in an effort to get the nearly 10 million people using the older
Windows 3.1x operating systems to upgrade to Windows 98.
-- Microsoft and Netscape will continue to battle for
the spot as the top Web browser. Look for the battle to become increasing
bitter as Microsoft's Internet Explorer takes market share from
Netscape's Navigator.
-- The push for "push" technology will subside.
The idea behind "push" was to deliver Web content to your
computer by subscription, instead of the user going online to retrieve
it.
But the "push" features are clunky and do little more
for most users than waste bandwidth and take up valuable computer
resources. And for most people, bookmarks are still the simplest
way to return to see what's new at a favorite Web page.
-- E-mail will remain the biggest use of the Internet,
with more and more appliances becoming e-mail capable. And more
of those devices will be wireless.
-- Java, the programming language that's never lived
up to its hype, will continue to fall short of the claims that Sun
makes for it. And until Sun and Microsoft end their feud over Java
(Microsoft wants to "optimize" Java to run under Windows),
its gains in the computing world will be minimal.
-- Electronic commerce will remain the buzzword you
hear from the computer experts and analysts in 1998. Sure, I agree
-- more people will be buying online in 1998.
But shopping online is a still mainly a novelty. It still doesn't
replace the satisfaction of in-store shopping or even browsing a
printed catalog.
-- Steve Jobs will drop the "interim" tag
that precedes his current job title as interim CEO of Apple Computers.
Even if Apple hires a CEO in 1998, it will still be Jobs calling
the shots for the beleaguered little company that could.
-- Sci-fi buffs have been waiting for the day to come
when we can use Star Trek-like voice commands with our computers:
"Computer, shields up! Phasers on stun! Red alert! Incoming
in-laws!"
Well that day has arrived -- at least partly. Speech recognition
software and related applications are some of the hottest developments
in computer technology. Ever dictate e-mail to your computer? Now
you can -- once you train the software to recognize your speech
patterns.
-- The retail computer market will see sales soften
unless prices for powerful new systems drop -- as they did in 1997.
-- Microsoft and other technology companies will be
edging into new markets in 1998.
For example, this year Microsoft created an interactive plush Barney
doll, complete with videos and computer CD-ROM-based games. Can
interactive versions of popular Looney Toons characters be far behind?
-- WebTV will not gain in popularity until Microsoft
makes a deal to have the technology built into VCRs and televisions.
A much-needed use for the built-in Web access would be the ability
to automatically set the VCR's time so it doesn't constantly flash
"12:00."
I'll take the first one, please.
KWANZAA ON THE WEB. While Christmas is over, Kwanzaa, the
African-American celebration whose name means "the first fruits
of the harvest," is just getting underway.
Kwanzaa runs Dec. 26 through Jan. 1, and the Kwanzaa Karamu, or
feast, is held the evening of Dec. 31.
The meal consists of a variety of African-influenced dishes an
is considered a time to acknowledge the importance of family, history
and culture.
If you're looking for some traditional favorite recipes, you might
visit Nancy J's Africentric Web site at http://members.tripod.com/(tilde)Nancy_J/
(Note: Replace the (tilde) with the tilde character on your keyboard,
which looks like the letter "S" on its side).
You'll find a listing of recipes for Sweet Potato Pie, African
Vegetarian Stew and other dishes.
You'll also find links to other Kwanzaa-related places on the Internet
-- and even a spot to send a virtual Kwanzaa card, or purchase Kwanzaa
wall hangings or related items.
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